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Polymarket odds of October Fed rate hike surge following higher-than-expected inflation data

Betting odds on Polymarket for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate hike spiked up to 37% following worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Oct. 14, 2026.

A Polymarket line chart showing odds for a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike surging to 37%.
Image: @WatcherGuru

Traders on prediction platform Polymarket sharply repriced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase following the release of a hotter-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index report on Oct. 14, 2026. According to Watcher.Guru, market odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike after the October meeting surged by 20 percentage points to reach 37%, with market volume touching $38,677,658.[2]

Subsequent updates showed the probability settling slightly lower later in the day. Polymarket Money reported odds of an October hike standing at 35% after the inflation figures, with the contract's chart showing a 63% probability for no change and total volume reaching $38,791,637.[1]

Cointelegraph also reported that Polymarket traders placed the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting at 35%, compared to a 66% chance for no change. Market data at the time priced odds for a 50-plus-basis-point increase or a 25-basis-point decrease at under 1% each, as total trading volume crossed $38,870,958.[3]

Key facts

  • Polymarket odds for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike surged up to 37% on Oct. 14, 2026, following a higher-than-expected U.S. CPI report.
  • The rate-hike probability jumped 20 percentage points from around 17%–19% earlier in the day.
  • Later on Oct. 14, Polymarket Money and Cointelegraph reported the odds of a 25-basis-point October hike at 35%.
  • Polymarket traders priced the probability of no change at the October meeting between 63% and 66%.
  • Odds for a rate cut of 25 basis points or a larger hike of 50-plus basis points were both priced below 1%.
  • Total trading volume on the market grew from $38,677,658 to over $38,870,958 during the day.

Sources · 3 sources

  1. PM

    Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoneyPost on X ·

    BREAKING: Odds of an October Fed rate hike surge following worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data. 35% chance. https://t.co/fTVHQYeexZ

    Open source
  2. WG

    Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuruPost on X ·

    JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points this month surge following today's higher-than-expected CPI inflation report. https://t.co/UvPaB9rB16

    Open source
  3. CO

    Cointelegraph@CointelegraphPost on X ·

    🚨 UPDATE: Polymarket traders put the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on October 28 at 35%, versus 66% for no change. https://t.co/XEuOmenMJs

    Open source