Polymarket investigates suspicious bets on Israeli election
Polymarket is reviewing dozens of recently created wallets that placed well-timed, profitable wagers on Israel's election shortly before voting concluded.
Prediction platform Polymarket is investigating suspicious and profitable trades placed around Israel's recent election, according to reports from Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal. Company investigators are reviewing dozens of freshly opened wallets that placed heavy bets shortly before voting ended, backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in office and his Likud party to secure the most seats. The trades became profitable after exit polls showed stronger results for Likud than early estimates had suggested.[2][3][4]
Onchain analytics firms flagged unusual activity heading into the vote count. Bubblemaps counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their very first funding on election day before polls closed, while tracking tool Polysights caught massive inflows of YES buys from fresh wallets as Netanyahu's odds climbed. Polymarket's three primary markets tied to the election—covering the next prime minister, party seat counts, and Likud's tally—tallied about $106.4 million in combined volume.[1][4]
Bloomberg reported that several flagged accounts have already cashed out more than $100,000, with other wallets holding unrealized paper gains. While no trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing and the findings remain inconclusive, Polymarket's market integrity policy prohibits trading on stolen confidential information or illegal tips. The platform notes it has referred more than 90 accounts to law enforcement to date.[1][4]
Key facts
- Polymarket is investigating dozens of newly opened wallets over well-timed, profitable bets on the Israeli election, as reported by Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.
- Bubblemaps identified 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day prior to the closing of polls.
- Polymarket's three main Israeli election markets generated approximately $106.4 million in combined trading volume.
- Some flagged accounts cashed out more than $100,000 in profits, while multiple wallets retained unrealized gains.
- Polysights detected large inflows of YES wagers on fresh accounts as Benjamin Netanyahu's odds increased.
- No trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing, and Bloomberg noted the preliminary findings are not conclusive.
- Polymarket states it has referred more than 90 accounts to law enforcement to date.
Sources · 4 sources
- LS
Laura Shin@laurashinPost on X ·
Bubblemaps told Reuters that 101 Polymarket accounts got their first funding on Israel's election day, before polls closed. Polymarket says it has referred more than 90 accounts to law enforcement to date. https://t.co/cVi8i8N8AF
Open source - BL
Bloomberg@businessPost on X ·
Polymarket is investigating a string of well-timed and profitable trades on the Israeli election this week in the latest case to raise concerns about potential insider trading on prediction markets https://t.co/5UtrujKUEQ
Open source - TW
The Wall Street Journal@WSJPost on X ·
Polymarket is investigating suspicious trades on the Israeli election this week. https://t.co/rEVZJ1nyxh
Open source - UN
UnchainedArticle ·
Polymarket Reviews Dozens of New Wallets Behind Well-Timed Israel Election Bets: Report Polymarket’s investigators are looking into dozens of recently opened wallets that wagered on Israel’s Oct. 27 election, the company’s investigative team told Bloomberg in a report published Thursday, Oct. 29. Reuters carried a summary of the Bloomberg report later that day. The election drew heavy betting on the platform. Polymarket’s three main markets on the vote, covering which party wins the most seats, Likud’s seat count and the next prime minister, have together logged about $106.4 million in trading volume, according to Unchained’s review of Polymarket’s own market data on Friday. It was not immediately clear how much of that volume came from the flagged wallets. According to Bloomberg, some of the accounts involved have together cashed out more than $100,000 , and many wallets are still sitting on paper gains. Hundreds of fresh accounts placed the bets shortly before voting ended on Tuesday, backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to keep his job and Likud to win the most seats. The positions turned profitable after exit polls gave Netanyahu’s party more seats than early reports had suggested. Get Unchained’s crypto news in your inbox with the free Unchained Daily newsletter . Trackers Spot Fresh Wallets on Election Day Bubblemaps counted 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on election day before voting closed, the onchain analytics firm told Reuters. Polysights , which tracks Polymarket flows, posted on X after polls closed that its tools had caught “massive inflows of YES buys on fresh wallets” as Netanyahu’s odds climbed, calling it “definitely worth investigating.” Per Bloomberg, both firms consider the activity suspicious and are digging into it. Bloomberg cautioned that the findings were not conclusive, noting that potential insider trading can be hard to separate from original research or a lucky bet. No trader has been publicly accused of wrongdoing. As of Friday, Polymarket’s market on which party would win the most seats priced Likud at about 99%, though it had not yet resolved. What Polymarket’s Rules Allow Polymarket’s market integrity page says its terms bar trading on stolen confidential information, on illegal tips, or on an event the trader has the power to influence. On enforcement, it states, “We can ban wallets, take legal action, or refer matters to law enforcement when warranted.” The company also says it has “referred 90+ accounts to law enforcement” and works with authorities on open investigations. The review follows a run of insider-trading cases across prediction markets. In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army master sergeant with using classified intelligence about the Maduro raid to win more than $409,000 on Polymarket. Earlier this month, Kalshi began reviewing three small bets that backed the White House press secretary pick before it was reported, while last month the House Oversight Committee widened its insider trading probe to more platforms. Related Listen: How Prediction Markets Make Espionage So Much Easier — and Risk National Security The post Polymarket Reviews Dozens of New Wallets Behind Well-Timed Israel Election Bets: Report appeared first on Unchained .
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