October Fed rate hike odds drop following cooler inflation data
Traders pared back expectations for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike after the central bank's preferred inflation measure came in cooler than anticipated.
Traders scaled back expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October after the central bank's preferred gauge of inflation accelerated by less than expected, Bloomberg reported. Polymarket Money similarly reported that October rate hike odds dropped sharply following a core PCE inflation print that came in cooler than expected.[1][3]
According to commentator That Martini Guy, odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell to 34.9% in the wake of the latest inflation data, indicating that markets are increasingly positioning for a rate pause instead of another increase. The commentator added that a decreased probability of additional Fed tightening removes pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets, which could enhance liquidity expectations and give investors more room to take on risk.[2]
Key facts
- Traders pared back expectations for an October Fed rate hike after the central bank's preferred inflation gauge accelerated less than expected, according to Bloomberg.
- Polymarket Money reported that October rate hike odds dropped sharply after core PCE came in cooler than expected.
- Odds of an October Fed rate hike declined to 34.9% following the inflation data, according to That Martini Guy.
- That Martini Guy claimed lower odds of further Fed tightening could improve liquidity expectations and relieve pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Sources · 3 sources
- BL
Bloomberg@businessPost on X ·
Traders pared back their expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October after the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation accelerated by less than expected https://t.co/taAvFOTNch
Open source - TM
That Martini Guy ₿@MartiniGuyYTPost on X ·
The odds of a Fed rate hike in October have now dropped to 34.9% following the latest inflation data. That means markets are increasingly pricing in a rate hold, rather than another hike. For Bitcoin and other risk assets, that removes some of the pressure from the Fed side. A lower probability of further tightening can improve liquidity expectations and give investors more room to take risk.
Open source - PM
Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoneyPost on X ·
BREAKING: October rate hike odds are tanking as Core PCE came in “cooler than expected.” https://t.co/L8TyhWoLcR
Open source