Roughly $11 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire as traders pay premium for downside protection
Nearly $11 billion in Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on Deribit, accounting for about a third of the platform's contracts, as traders pay a heavy premium for short-dated puts amid looming macro and political events.
Roughly $10.86 billion to $11 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to settle on Oct. 30, according to exchange metrics and reports from Decrypt and market commentator That Martini Guy. The settlement accounts for approximately one-third of Deribit's total Bitcoin options open interest. The large expiry arrives amid expectations of heightened market volatility, falling just days before the U.S. midterm elections and following a Federal Reserve rate decision where the central bank held rates steady despite two officials voting to hike.[1][2][3][4]
Pricing data points to elevated caution among crypto derivatives traders. On Deribit, short-dated Bitcoin put options have traded more than 10 volatility points above equivalent calls, reflecting substantial demand for downside protection, according to That Martini Guy. An open interest chart shared by the analyst indicates an underlying Bitcoin index price of $80,121, an options max pain level of $78,000, and at-the-money implied volatility of 31.5%.[1]
The distribution of open interest also reveals that substantial call positions clustered between the $90,000 and $100,000 strikes remain well out of the money with Bitcoin trading near $80,000. While the elevated pricing for puts over calls does not guarantee an impending sell-off, That Martini Guy noted that options traders are showing visible unease regarding downside risk.[1]
Key facts
- Deribit data shows $10.86 billion in Bitcoin options scheduled to expire on Oct. 30.
- The expiring positions represent approximately one-third of Deribit's total Bitcoin options open interest.
- Short-dated Bitcoin puts are priced more than 10 volatility points higher than equivalent calls on Deribit.
- Deribit metrics for the Oct. 30 expiry show a max pain point of $78,000 and at-the-money implied volatility of 31.5%, against a Bitcoin index price of $80,121.
- Heavy call open interest sits between the $90,000 and $100,000 strikes, remaining out of the money with Bitcoin near $80,000.
- Traders are bracing for sharper price swings around the expiry, which coincides with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and follows a Fed rate pause that saw two votes to hike.
Sources · 4 sources
- TM
That Martini Guy ₿@MartiniGuyYTPost on X ·
$10.86B in Bitcoin options expire tomorrow, and traders are paying a serious premium for downside protection. BTC's short-dated put options are priced more than 10 volatility points above calls, according to Deribit. A lot of the open calls sit between $90K and $100K. With BTC hovering around $80K, those bullish bets are now well out of the money. This doesn't guarantee a dump, but options traders clearly aren't comfortable with the downside risk here.
Open source - DE
DecryptArticle ·
$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means A third of Deribit's Bitcoin options settle Friday, a day after the Fed held rates with two officials voting to hike. Here's why that matters for Bitcoin's price.
Open source - BL
Bloomberg@businessPost on X ·
Bitcoin traders are bracing for potentially sharper price swings as $11 billion of options expire this week, just days before US midterm elections that could add further uncertainty to crypto markets https://t.co/Iroq6d6tIG
Open source - TS
The Straits Times@straits_timesPost on X ·
Bitcoin traders expect swings on US$11 billion options expiry https://t.co/ko3bRLAGJK
Open source