J.P. Morgan includes Bitcoin in long-term outlook for first time with 10% return forecast
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time, projecting a 10% compound annual return over the next decade that tops traditional asset classes.
In the 31st annual edition of its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management included Bitcoin for the first time, projecting that the cryptocurrency will outperform traditional asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years. The firm's 2027 outlook projects a base-case compound annual return of 10.0% alongside a 20.9% arithmetic return for Bitcoin. The forecast positions Bitcoin ahead of U.S. real estate investment trusts at 8.2%, U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, U.S. Aggregate bonds at 5.6%, and gold at 5.5%.[3][4][5][6]
Based on a starting Bitcoin price of $83,000 used in the research, J.P. Morgan's 10-year projection models a base case reaching approximately $215,000 to $215,300 by 2036, representing a 159% gain. Under a 16.5% annualized bull-case scenario, the bank projects Bitcoin climbing to around $385,000 to $385,500, while its bear-case outlook models an 11.2% annual decline to $25,300.[1][5][9][10]
Despite forecasting top-of-the-table returns, J.P. Morgan stopped short of recommending an allocation to Bitcoin. The report attached a 55.0% annualized volatility assumption to the asset, citing heavy volatility and unstable correlations as key barriers to adoption. The bank also noted that a definitive 10-year forecast remains premature for portfolio construction, leaving Bitcoin excluded from its primary models for asset co-movement.[2][5][6][7][8][9]
Key facts
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time in the report's 31st annual edition.
- The report projects a 10.0% compound annual return, 20.9% arithmetic return, and 55.0% annualized volatility for Bitcoin over a 10-to-15-year horizon.
- Bitcoin's 10.0% projected compound return is the highest shown in J.P. Morgan's asset comparison table, ahead of U.S. REITs (8.2%), U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), U.S. Aggregate bonds (5.60%), and gold (5.50%).
- Using an $83,000 starting price, J.P. Morgan models a base case reaching $215,000 to $215,300 by 2036, a 16.5% bull case reaching roughly $385,000 to $385,500, and a bear case of $25,300.
- J.P. Morgan stopped short of recommending a Bitcoin allocation, citing unstable correlations and 55% volatility as barriers to portfolio construction.
Sources · 10 sources
- CR
Crypto Rover@cryptoroverPost on X ·
🚨 BITCOIN'S BIGGEST CRITIC IS NOW PROJECTING THAT $BTC WILL OUTPERFORM EVERYTHING. JP Morgan has released its long-term market outlook, and its Bitcoin projections are very bullish. They estimate Bitcoin could deliver an average annual return of 10% in its base case and 16.5% in its bull case. That's higher than its forecasts for U.S. stocks at 7.5%, gold at 5.5%, and U.S. bonds at 5.6%. Based on Bitcoin's price of $83,000 used in the report, here's what those projections mean over 10 years: • Base case: Around $215,000, a 159% gain. • Bull case: Around $385,000, a 363% gain. Now remember what happened in 2017. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud and said he would fire any JPMorgan trader caught trading it. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $4,100. Nine years later, $BTC is worth more than $80,000, and JPMorgan is publishing scenarios where it could more than quadruple over the next decade. The same bank whose CEO once wanted nothing to do with Bitcoin is now putting it ahead of every major asset in its long-term return projections.
Open source - TB
The BlockArticle ·
JPMorgan issues first long-term bitcoin return forecast, projecting 10% annually J.P. Morgan Asset Management's first long-term bitcoin forecast projects a 10% annual return but flags 55% volatility as a barrier to portfolio adoption.
Open source - WB
Wu Blockchain@WuBlockchainPost on X ·
JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming U.S. Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the investment arm of U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase, included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time, projecting a 10% compound annual return over the next 10–15 years, ahead of U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%) and U.S. REITs (8.2%). Its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions also estimated Bitcoin's arithmetic annual return at 20.9%, with 55% annualized volatility. Bitwise CIO @Matt_Hougan said the figures positioned Bitcoin as the highest-returning asset over the next decade.
Open source - JM
Jacquelyn Melinek@jacqmelinekPost on X ·
.@JPMorgan Asset Management added a bitcoin forecast in its annual "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report for the first time The 31st edition dives into "how economic nationalism, faster tech adoption and shifts in capital flows are reshaping returns over the next 10 to 15 years." At the top of the list, it had bitcoin with a 10% compounded return over the next 10-15 years with 55% volatility. That's about 2.5% above its 7.5% estimate for US large caps and 4.5% higher than its 5.5% estimate for gold.
Open source - FC
Frank Chaparro@fintechfrankPost on X ·
J.P. Morgan Asset Management added a bitcoin forecast to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time. This is the 31st edition of the annual report. Its 10-year base case for BTC is a 10% compounded return with 55% volatility. That is 2.5 points above its 7.5% estimate for US large caps and 4.5 points above its 5.5% estimate for gold. JPM still does not treat BTC as a portfolio diversifier. It points to unstable correlations and high volatility, and its bear case is -11.2% a year.
Open source - DH
Dan Held@danheldPost on X ·
JP Morgan in 2017 - "Bitcoin is a hyped-up fraud" JP Morgan in 2026 - "Bitcoin will be the best performing asset of the decade" https://t.co/kb4h5crvez
Open source - CR
CryptoSlateArticle ·
JPMorgan models Bitcoin reaching $385,000 in 10-year bull case despite CEO Jamie Dimon’s criticism A report page shared by @Matt_Hougan shows the 10-to-15-year assumptions, while the firm stops short of a bitcoin allocation. Read the full story on CryptoSlate Understand the crypto stories that matter and what to watch next. Get The Catalyst in your inbox
Open source - TB
The Block@TheBlockCoPost on X ·
THE BLOCK: JPMorgan released its 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions this week, and for the first time, the firm put a range on bitcoin returns, though it is not yet included in its main models for measuring how asset prices move together. The report's 10-year base case for bitcoin:native is a 10% compounded return with 55% volatility.
Open source - CR
CryptoSlate@CryptoSlatePost on X ·
.@jpmorgan Asset Management’s 10-year Bitcoin scenarios range from $25,300 to $385,500, with a $215,300 base case. It projects 55% annualized volatility and considers a definitive 10-year forecast premature for portfolio construction. via @hardeyjumoh https://t.co/bGchzHFKz2
Open source - BS
BSCN@BSCNewsPost on X ·
JP Morgan is super bullish on Bitcoin JPMorgan says it has developed a forecast that sees $BTC outperforming all other major asset classes over the next decade. Starting from a base price of $83,000, JPMorgan projects a base-case annual return of 10%, with Bitcoin reaching $215,000 by 2036, and a bull-case return of 16.5%, with Bitcoin hitting $385,000. In the ten-year forecast, digital assets are expected to outperform traditional asset classes, with US equities returning 7.5%, domestic bonds 5.6%, and gold 5.5%.
Open source