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Markets price high odds of Fed rate hold ahead of October 28 decision

Traders and market probability trackers are pricing in an 82% to 85% likelihood that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at its October 28 meeting, even after higher-than-expected inflation reports.

A Polymarket prediction chart showing an 85 percent probability of no change in interest rates and a 14 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase for the Fed's October decision.
Image: @unusual_whales

Market indicators point toward a rate pause ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting. Prediction platform Polymarket shows an 85% probability of no change to interest rates and a 14% chance of a 25-basis-point increase, backed by nearly $49.6 million in volume, according to financial commentary account unusual_whales. Traders maintained those hold expectations even after consumer price index and producer price index data came in hotter than expected.[2]

A target rate probability chart shared by That Martini Guy similarly placed the probability of holding rates at the current 375–400 basis point target at 85.1%, with a 14.9% chance of a rate hike into the 400–425 basis point range.[3]

Crypto market participants are also monitoring the decision, with CoinGape reporting an 82.8% probability of a rate hold. Ahead of the meeting, Bitcoin whales acquired 88,987 BTC over the past month as Bitcoin confronts resistance at $82,000, while XRP approaches a key support level at $1.29. An attached SoSoValue metric board showed XRP at $1.30, with $1.47 billion in total net assets and a daily net outflow of $2.47 million.[1]

Key facts

  • Markets and probability trackers show an 82.8% to 85.1% chance the Federal Reserve holds interest rates at its October 28 meeting.
  • Polymarket shows an 85% probability of no rate change and a 14% chance of a 25 bps increase, across roughly $49.59 million in trading volume.
  • Recent CPI and PPI inflation readings both came in hotter than expected.
  • Target rate probability data indicates an 85.1% probability of maintaining the 375–400 bps target rate, versus a 14.9% chance of a hike to 400–425 bps.
  • Bitcoin whales accumulated 88,987 BTC over the past month, with Bitcoin facing $82,000 resistance.
  • CoinGape highlighted $1.29 support for XRP, alongside SoSoValue data showing XRP at $1.30, total net assets of $1.47 billion, and daily net outflows of $2.47 million.

Sources · 3 sources

  1. CO

    CoinGape@CoinGapeMediaPost on X ·

    🚨 #Bitcoin & $XRP Eye October 28 Fed Decision Markets price an 82.8% chance of a #Fed rate hold, while Bitcoin whales added 88,987 BTC in a month. $BTC faces $82,000 resistance, while $XRP must defend $1.29 support. 🔗 Know more in comments

    Open source
  2. UW

    unusual_whales@unusual_whalesPost on X ·

    Traders still expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week. Polymarket odds are at 85% no change. Last week, inflation for CPI and PPI came back hotter than expected. https://t.co/2xFqtbb2LG

    Open source
  3. TM

    That Martini Guy ₿@MartiniGuyYTPost on X ·

    The Fed's next FOMC meeting is in 8 days A hold of current rates stands at an 85.1% probability A rate hike has just a 14.9% chance as things stand https://t.co/rjpj82aJL5

    Open source